This is the last article in a series on small area population growth since 2010. From 2010–2020, the unincorporated county’s population grew 22% to 1 million residents[i]. Back in August, the Census Bureau released its first batch of data and releases will continue through 2022. Since this data is at the block level, we can look at population dynamics in small areas within Unincorporated Hillsborough County (e.g., ZIP Codes).
There are 48 ZIP Codes wholly or partially inside Unincorporated Hillsborough County. From 2010–2020, population growth ranged from 0.71% (33624 in Greater Carrollwood/Northdale) to 93% (33598 in Balm/Wimauma). Average population growth was 25%. As expected, the 10 ZIP Codes that grew the most are in the Urban Service Area. This area roughly extends from Brandon south to Sun City Center. These 10 ZIP Codes attracted 53% of all new residents to the county. Their growth ranged 36% (33534 in Gibsonton) to 93% (33598 in Wimauma) with an average of 60%.
Per Objective 1 of the Hillsborough County’s Comprehensive Plan’s Future Land Use Element, the Urban Service Area (USA) was setup to absorb at least 80% of new growth into the unincorporated county. In fact, 83% of the new residents moved into the USA. Alternatively, the proportion of unincorporated county residents living within the USA is 72% (up only 1% since 2010).
Figure 1. 2010-2020 Growth Areas Within Unincorporated Hillsborough County (Darker blue areas grew the most.)
Figure 2. 2010-2020 Population Growth in the 10 ZIP Codes with the Highest Growth
In terms of additional growth through 2045, the population in Unincorporated Hillsborough County is expected to increase 28% to 1.3 million persons. This area is expected to attract two out of three new residents. At the ZIP Code level, expected growth ranges from 2% (33324 in Lutz) to 252% (33565 in remote rural northeast). Expected average growth by ZIP Code is 44%.
Amongst the fastest growing ZIP Codes, additional growth through 2045 ranges from 6% through 119% (See Figure 3 below). The average is 32%. ZIP Code 33598 is expected to more than double its population from 24,023 to 50,109 by 2045.
Figure 3. 2020-2045 Expected Population Growth in ZIP Codes that Grew the Most Since 2010
To conclude, the 48 ZIP Codes in Unincorporated Hillsborough County have grown an average of 25% since 2010. The 10 ZIP Codes experiencing the greatest growth are in the Urban Service Area, with their population growing between 36% and 93%. Most ZIP Codes in Unincorporated Hillsborough County will see significant population growth through 2045 (averaging 45%). ZIP Code 33598 in Wimauma will see its population at least double through 2045.
For more information on housing units, population, and employment trends, please go to: https://archive.planhillsborough.org/demographic-economic-data/. Do you have an economic or demographic data need for a more specific area within Hillsborough County? Please contact us at gonzalezy@plancom.org.
